Natural Gas analysis – another bull run coming?

Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020.

Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.

But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high.

With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future.

From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic  level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.

According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China.

Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!