French Elections 2017: Trade with GO Markets

French elections 2017

 
With Brexit in full swing, Europe is getting ready for another political event and the people of France are going to decide on who will run their country next. There are four main candidates for the job – Benoit Hamon, Emmanuel Macron, Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen. Each of the candidates has his/her own views of how France should be moving forward and it will unquestionably have an impact on Europe’s third largest economy.
 

The candidates
Francois Fillon, The Republicans
Francois Fillon is the member of The Republicans party and only a few months ago was predicted to win the election. Fillon was previously the prime minister of France from 2007 until 2012. He won his party’s primary last year by 15 points beating the former President – Nicolas Sarkozy. His plans include scraping the 35-hour working week, removing the wealth tax and cutting half a million public sector jobs.
 
Marine Le Pen, National Front
Marine Le Pen is one of the front-runners in this year’s elections, she is the leader of the far-right National Front Party. Le Pen took place in the 2012 presidential election and placed this behind Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande with 17.90% of the vote. Her plans include reducing immigration and raising welfare benefits, but her biggest plan is to hold a referendum on the country’s European Union membership and taking them out of the Eurozone.
 
Emmanuel Macron, En Marche
Emmanuel Macron is one of the youngest candidates for the presidency and at 39 he has already served as economy minister. He has since started his En Marche movement. His plans include – greater checks on politician’s powers and has backed deregulation in certain French industries. He also plans to end 35-hour week for younger workers.
 
Benoit Hamon, Socialist Party
Benoit Hamon is a member of Socialist Party and the Party of European Socialists. He became the presidential candidate on January 29^th, 2017 after defeating Manuel Valls in the second round of the party primary. His plans include taxing wealth created by robots and to have a universal monthly payment for French citizens, regardless of their income.

What are the polls saying?

Latest poll from Harris Interactive shows Emmanuel Macron (26% of the vote) currently ahead of Marine Le Pen (25% of the vote) for the first round of France’s presidential election. The former front runner Francois Fillon is behind with 20% of the vote and Benoit Hamon in fourth with 13%.

Source: Harris Interactive poll

Your Watchlist
We have seen a steady decline in the EUR over the last few months. Europe is now facing another political headache and more uncertainty when the French elections take place this year. The two frontrunners – Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are very close in the polls and have different plans for France.  Regardless of who wins the French elections, the EUR will certainly be tested and one to watch.

EURUSD
Source:GO Markets MT4

 
On the Indices front, the CAC40 index has been on the rise in the recent months as you can see in the chart below. The index may not be showing signs of pessimism for the time being. We see a similar pattern on the Euro Stoxx 50. Will we see a different picture closer to the election and how will the result impact the index? We will find out in the coming months.

CAC40 Source: GO Markets MT4

STOXX50 Source: GO Markets MT4

Key dates for the French Presidential election
>  The first round of the vote will take place on Sunday April 23, 2017.
>  The two candidates with the most support will go into head-to-head final vote, which will be held on May 7, 2017.
 
 

By Klavs Valters, GO Markets