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- The Week Ahead – US CPI, Aussie employment and the charts to watch
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- The Week Ahead – US CPI, Aussie employment and the charts to watch
News & AnalysisNews & AnalysisThe Week Ahead – US CPI, Aussie employment and the charts to watch
12 February 2024 By Lachlan MeakinWith FX markets being pushed and pulled by market participants betting on when the major central banks are going to start cutting rates (or not) FX traders have some important risk events that will influence those expectations to negotiate this week. CPI and retail sales headline in the US, Aussie traders have the January Jobs report and for Sterling traders, UK GDP figures.
The charts to watch
US Dollar Index (DXY) – CPI to sway market pricing of a March cut
Recent strong employment and growth data out of the US has seen the market reprice significantly lower the chance of a Fed rate cut in the March meeting, with odds currently sitting at around 19%, from around 50% only a couple of weeks ago. This week’s CPI will likely go a long way to settling market expectations on this.
DXY has had a strong run up in 2024 so far as continued Fed pushback on rate cut expectations has supported the USD. Key levels to watch this week are the 100 day SMA to the upside which has capped further upside in the DXY over the last few sessions, and the 200 day SMA to the downside for support.
AUDUSD – Will jobs bounce back after December’s shocker
Last Tuesdays RBA meeting saw no cut as expected but with a hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. This was a relief for AUDUSD bulls after a break lower of the support level at 0.6525 on Monday looked like a significant decline was ahead for this pair. The RBA has a dual mandate of inflation and employment to look after, so this week’s Jobs report will be closely watched after the big miss in December’s figure. The once support of 0.6525 has now established as resistance paired with the 100 Day SMA and will be a key level to watch with this week’s data as to the Aussies next move.
The weeks full calendar at the link below:
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Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
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