Early Voting Kicks Off, as a Trump Presidency comes into view

Early voting has officially begun in several critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina signalling the start of an intense final stretch in the race for the presidency. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have also now entered the early voting period and what is interesting in 2024 over 2020 is that Trump has backed early voting and this has seen record levels of Republican voters going early. 

For example – voter engagement in North Carolina and Georgia, has seen more than 1 million ballots have already been cast. This surge in early voting represents 13 percent of North Carolina’s registered voters and 17 percent of Georgia’s, reflecting heightened enthusiasm and participation in this crucial election that is still sitting on razor thin margins. 

Despite the impressive numbers, caution is needed, and early voting turnout is not necessarily predictive of the final election outcome. Rules regarding the release of early voting data are strict. States are prohibited from reporting any results until after the polls close on Election Day. Moreover, most key swing states don’t allow the counting of ballots until Election Day itself, making it difficult to gauge any meaningful trends from early voting alone. But what catches people’s attention is the amount of ‘registered party’ voters that are out particularly Republican voters – this however doesn’t necessarily translate to votes for this party or that.

Tightest Presidential Race in over 50 years

National polls show an increasingly competitive race between Trump and Harris, with the gap between them narrowing as Election Day approaches. In recent weeks, Trump has managed to close in on Harris’s lead, especially in swing state polls, where he has shown slight but consistent improvement. Polling averages now indicate a virtual tie, with both candidates hovering within the margin of error in national surveys.

According to the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds a narrow lead of 1.8 percentage points over Trump nationally, while Trump enjoys a slight 0.5-point advantage in key battleground states. Betting aggregator RealClearPolitics reports a similarly tight race, with Harris leading by 1 point nationwide, while Trump leads by 1 point in swing states. However, on the betting markets, RealClearPolitics have Trump 60.1 points to 38.2 points and a clear favourite – a trend that started on October 6 and has never slowed.

The back-and-forth dynamic suggests that Trump’s recent gains, coupled with a slight dip in Harris’s polling numbers, could indicate that he is winning over more independent voters or converting a portion of Harris’s marginal supporters.

One recent poll conducted by the Washington Post/Schar School in early October provides further evidence of this highly competitive race. In their survey of likely voters in key swing states, Harris leads by a razor-thin 1-point margin, but all results remain within the margin of error. The poll shows Trump holding the largest leads in Arizona (+3 points) and North Carolina (+3 points), while Harris has the upper hand in Georgia (+4 points) and Wisconsin (+3 points). This swing state polling underscores how critical these battlegrounds will be in determining the outcome of the election, with both candidates relying heavily on marginal voters who remain undecided or only tentatively committed.

This election is shaping up to be one of the closest in modern U.S. history, with both candidates facing unprecedented levels of uncertainty. Pollsters are warning that even a small margin of error could dramatically alter the outcome, particularly in swing states where the race is so tight.

Polling in past elections has seen significant errors – most notably in 2016, when many polls underestimated Trump’s support, leading to an unexpected victory in several key states. While polling improved in 2020, it still underestimated Trump’s performance, albeit by a smaller margin. In the 2022 midterms, polls underestimated the strength of Democratic candidates. These trends underscore the inherent challenges pollsters face in accounting for rapidly shifting demographics, small sample sizes, and voter behaviour that can be difficult to predict.

In this context, a structural polling error could potentially allow either Trump or Harris to sweep the battleground states, dramatically altering the electoral landscape. The polling community remains cautious, aware that even the most accurate forecasts in recent elections still had an average margin of error of 1 percentage point—enough to swing the outcome in such a close race. Which is why we as traders need to be mindful of confirmation and attention biases that can cloud trading judgement. 

Caution is Advised

As mentioned, prediction markets have reflected a tightening race, but with Trump now emerging as a slight favourite in many forecasting models. Despite this, we urge caution, pointing out that election prediction markets often have low liquidity, meaning they may not fully capture the nuances of voter sentiment or reflect real-world conditions as accurately as traditional polling. We also suggest – “Research, research, research” and from sources that both agree and disagree with your trading view and personal points of view. The election isn’t over, and trading in the USD and the bond markets tell us this is the case. Plus, anything could happen in the next 14 days, both candidates are criss-crossing the country and the current funds being spent on the election has never been higher. 

Both Trump and Harris are ramping up their campaign efforts. Harris is slated to appear at a CNN town hall in Pennsylvania, an essential swing state, as part of her ongoing efforts to mobilize voters in the final days leading up to the election. Trump on the other hand is spending most of his media time on his own social media channel Truth Social and other online media that is friendly to his views.

Anything could happen here.