- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- Mobile trading platforms
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- Mobile trading platforms
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Home
- News & Analysis
- Articles
- Featured
- No more ‘White Knight’? What China’s stimulus plans mean for iron ore
- Home
- News & Analysis
- Articles
- Featured
- No more ‘White Knight’? What China’s stimulus plans mean for iron ore
News & AnalysisNews & AnalysisNo more ‘White Knight’? What China’s stimulus plans mean for iron ore
13 November 2024 By Evan LucasChina’s recent shift in economic policy and its potential for fiscal stimulus reflect an evolving approach to support economic stability. Following previous monetary easing measures, including a reduction in the Reserve Ratio Requirement and interest rate cuts in late September, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee has now approved a local government debt restructuring plan. This plan allows for up to RMB 10 trillion (~US$2.54 Trillion) in debt adjustments, including a one-time increase of RMB 6 trillion in the special debt ceiling over 2024-2026, and an additional RMB 800 billion in special bond quotas annually from 2024 to 2028. These measures align with expectations, the catch – it’s estimated to add just 0.1 per cent to China’s GDP.
Naturally this left the market disappointed and saw Chinese equities shredded. But it’s more than the lack of direct demand-side stimulus. It’s the vague guidance on the use of bonds for banking sector recapitalisation as well as poor outlining on housing inventory buy-backs, and idle land. It’s all a bit, ‘nothing’.
Now we admit market expectations had been high, so price falls were inevitable, but the metals prices post-meeting were telling from both a short- and longer-term perspective. First support for the housing market may be limited in the near term, given that primary home sales for top developers turned positive up 15 per cent year-on-year from June last year and home prices rose slightly 0.4 per cent in 50 cities September to October.
Second is a possible trade war and having some powder dry as it gears up for the next four years of a Trump 2.0 administration. Fiscal Stimulus is clearly going to be part of this.
And already we have seen Finance Minister Lan Foan, in comments to the South China Morning Post discussing this very point. He pointed out that China’s Ministry of Finance has a readiness for fiscal expansion starting in 2025 and that China’s current debt-to-GDP ratio (68%) provides fiscal headroom, especially in comparison to Japan (250%) and the U.S. (119%). So is that suggesting it’s a ‘when’ not an ‘if’?
From a trader and markets perspective the answer may come at the Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to outline specific fiscal measures for 2025, potentially focusing on reducing housing inventory, boosting infrastructure, and enhancing social welfare and consumption.
The market consensus is for between RMB 2-3 trillion in fiscal expansion over the next one to two years, likely with an initial emphasis on infrastructure investment over consumption support. We should point out this could be a “fourth strike and you’re out” territory as expectations for delivery since Gold Week celebrations have been 0-3, a fourth miss might see the markets completely ignoring what has been promised.
However if it does eventuate looking historically, such investment-heavy stimulus cycles have bolstered demand for steel and other raw materials.
China’s past stimulus responses, particularly during the 2018-19 U.S. tariff period, included fiscal stimulus and currency depreciation, indicating that fiscal policy could adjust in response to global economic factors. However, China’s approach to fiscal expansion this time may differ slightly from past cycles:
Reason 1: Steel Demand: Prior fiscal expansions, such as during 2009-2010 and the 2018-19 tariff period, drove strong steel demand growth. Investment in steel-intensive infrastructure, for example, boosted annual steel demand by approximately 200 million tons (a 30 per cent increase) between 2016 and 2019, raising the steel intensity of GDP by 7 per cent. Given China’s high cumulative steel stock—estimated at around 8.5 tons per capita (approaching developed-nation averages of 8-12 tons per capita)—the scale of future infrastructure investment may be more limited, as large physical projects are increasingly complete and the need for new largest scale projects is moderating.
Reason 2: Shift To Consumption and Social Welfare: Since 2018 China has subtly and gradually shifted fiscal efforts toward consumer support and social welfare to address deflation risks. This shift is likely to accelerate, as policy moves to an emphasis on stimulating internal demand through social spending.
Now historically China has often favoured investment-driven stimulus to support GDP growth targets, which could mean another infrastructure-led, steel-intensive approach if economic conditions demand it, albeit possibly on a smaller scale than in the past, but again 0-3 on promises, there are risks it doesn’t materialise this time around.
The next part of the story for commodities and a China stimulus story is the impending trade war. China is clearly facing headwinds for its exports, given the likely policy changes from the second Trump administration. The biggest issues are the 10 per cent tariff on all imports and up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods. The timing and specifics of the tariffs are uncertain, but using his 2016-2020 timelines as a guide it’s likely to be one of the first programs enacted and new tariffs could emerge as early as the first half of 2025.
Currently, more than 20 per cent of China’s steel production is tied to exports—11 per cent directly and 12 per cent indirectly through products like machinery and vehicles—any new tariffs on Chinese goods would likely impact steel output and, subsequently, iron ore demand.
During the 2018-19 tariff period, China’s direct steel exports to the U.S. declined, but this was balanced by growth in indirect steel exports via manufactured goods and bolstered by domestic infrastructure demand which is hard to see this time around.
2025 strategies China might deploy to counteract any new tariffs could include currency depreciation, reciprocal tariffs, re-routing exports to new markets, and increased fiscal and monetary stimulus. Interestingly the U.S. comprises only 1 per cent of China’s direct steel export market, it the larger share for indirect exports, particularly machinery ~20 per cent that is the issue. Since 2018, China has expanded its steel-based goods exports by focusing on emerging markets—a resilience that will likely be tested further if tariffs intensify next year.
So where does this leave iron ore? Current iron ore prices, hovering around US$100 per tonne, seem to reflect current market fundamentals pretty accurately. The substantial net short positions in SGX futures, which were prevalent prior to the late-September stimulus, have notably diminished in the past 6 weeks
China’s recent policy adjustments have mitigated the downside risks for steel demand for the remainder of 2024. This is coupled with solidifying demand indicators and restocking activities, which may bolster seasonal price strength as the year concludes.
Nevertheless, the potential impact of a seasonal price rally may be constrained by relatively high port stock levels, which presently stand at about 41 days of supply which again underscores why price around US$100 a tonne is accurate.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Ministry of Finance in China signalling forthcoming fiscal expansion suggests a potential upside risk. However, potential new tariffs from the U.S. may pose challenges to steel export volumes, potentially counteracting the positive effects of domestic fiscal measures. China’s response to such tariffs—potentially through currency depreciation, trade redirection, or additional fiscal and monetary stimulus—will be crucial in mitigating these pressures. But this would be a zero-sum game effect. Thus any upside risks are counted by downside risks – this leads us to conclude that China is not going to be the White Knight of the past. And that 2025 is going to be a tale of two competing forces that sees pricing see-sawing around but finding equilibrium at current prices.
This also leads us to point to equities – iron ore and cyclical plays have benefited strongly over the past 24 months on higher prices and the long COVID tail. 2025 appears to be the year that tail ends and a new phase will begin.
Ready to start trading?
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
Next Article
Drill, Drill, Drill Baby – Oil in the next world order
There has been plenty of conjecture about where oil is going to go in 2025 and we would suggest that the recent climb in Brent crude oil prices above $80 per barrel reflects an intensifying mix of geopolitical uncertainty. The main 3 uncertainties driving oil have been the impact of the U.S. presidential election, the escalation of the Middle ...
November 15, 2024Read More >Previous Article
Ripple Effects: How the 2024 U.S. Election Results Could Reshape American and Australia’s Financial Markets
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has already stirred financial markets, with various sectors and asset classes responding...
November 8, 2024Read More >We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies. You can view our cookie policy here.Manage consentPrivacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.Cookie Duration Description AWSALBCORS 7 days This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement 1 month Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional 1 month The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". cookielawinfo-checkbox-others 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". elementor never This cookie is used by the website's WordPress theme. It allows the website owner to implement or change the website's content in real-time. PHPSESSID session This cookie is native to PHP applications. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. viewed_cookie_policy 1 month The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. _GRECAPTCHA 5 months 27 days This cookie is set by Google. In addition to certain standard Google cookies, reCAPTCHA sets a necessary cookie (_GRECAPTCHA) when executed for the purpose of providing its risk analysis. __cfruid session Cloudflare sets this cookie to identify trusted web traffic. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.Cookie Duration Description CONSENT 16 years 3 months 17 days 20 hours These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. They register anonymous statistical data on for example how many times the video is displayed and what settings are used for playback.No sensitive data is collected unless you log in to your google account, in that case your choices are linked with your account, for example if you click “like” on a video. SPSI session This cookie is used for setting a unique ID for the session and it collects user behaviour on the website during the session. This collected information is used for statistical purposes. vuid 2 years Vimeo installs this cookie to collect tracking information by setting a unique ID to embed videos to the website. _ga 2 years The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors. _gat_UA-2467324-17 1 minute This is a pattern type cookie set by Google Analytics, where the pattern element on the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. It appears to be a variation of the _gat cookie which is used to limit the amount of data recorded by Google on high traffic volume websites. _ga_9P2FTXTH5P 2 years This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. _gcl_au 3 months Provided by Google Tag Manager to experiment advertisement efficiency of websites using their services. _gid 1 day Installed by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously. _uetsid 1 day This cookies are used to collect analytical information about how visitors use the website. This information is used to compile report and improve site. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.Cookie Duration Description IDE 1 year 24 days Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. MUID 1 year 24 days Bing sets this cookie to recognize unique web browsers visiting Microsoft sites. This cookie is used for advertising, site analytics, and other operations. NID 6 months NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. test_cookie 15 minutes The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE 5 months 27 days A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. YSC session YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. yt-remote-connected-devices never YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. yt-remote-device-id never YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. yt.innertube::nextId never These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. yt.innertube::requests never These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.Cookie Duration Description AWSALB 7 days AWSALB is a cookie generated by the Application load balancer in the Amazon Web Services. It works slightly different from AWSELB. DEMO_FORM_PCODE past No description geot_rocket_city session No description available. geot_rocket_country session No description available. geot_rocket_state session No description available. ms-uid 1 year No description available. SPSE session No description available. STYXKEY_geot_country session No description _uc_current_session 1 hour No description available. _uc_initial_landing_page 1 month No description available. _uc_last_referrer 1 month No description available. _uc_referrer 1 month No description available. _uc_visits 1 month No description available. _uetvid 1 year 24 days No description available. Please share your location to continue.
Check our help guide for more info.