- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- Mobile trading platforms
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Trading
- Trading
- Markets
- Markets
- Products
- Forex
- Commodities
- Metals
- Indices
- Shares
- Cryptocurrencies
- Treasuries
- ETFs
- Accounts
- Accounts
- Compare our accounts
- Our spreads
- Funding & withdrawals
- Open account
- Try free demo
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms & tools
- Platforms
- Platforms
- Platforms overview
- MetaTrader 4
- MetaTrader 5
- Mobile trading platforms
- Premium trading tools
- Premium trading tools
- Tools overview
- VPS
- Genesis
- Education
- Education
- Resources
- Resources
- News & analysis
- Education hub
- Economic calendar
- Earnings announcements
- Help & support
- Help & support
- About
- About
- About GO Markets
- Our awards
- Sponsorships
- Client support
- Client support
- Contact us
- FAQs
- Quick support
- Holiday trading hours
- Fraud and scam awareness
- Legal documents
- Home
- News & Analysis
- Trading Strategies, Psychology
- 3 potential reasons why forward testing a new strategy is beneficial when amending trading plan
- Home
- News & Analysis
- Trading Strategies, Psychology
- 3 potential reasons why forward testing a new strategy is beneficial when amending trading plan
News & AnalysisNews & Analysis3 potential reasons why forward testing a new strategy is beneficial when amending trading plan
27 December 2019 By Mike SmithWarning: Turn your sensitivity meter down a little. This is a no sugar-coating, tell-it-how-it-is article (but rest assured it comes from a nurturing place).
All over the globe, trading gurus attempt to sell their wares (software, the ‘holy grail’ of trade set ups etc) using retrospective charting examples. Such powerful visual “evidence” is often used to persuade prospective FX clients that this vehicle is ‘easy’ to make profit with. With little work, little time, or whatever marketing buttons they are using to press to get a response.
So, hours of energy invested, often cash is exchanged and yet more often than not, with an off the shelf system in place (often just an entry system which we know is never going to offer a complete trading solution) traders are left feeling more than a little disappointed that such “guaranteed, easy riches” are not showing up in their trading account.
On an individual level we see similar.
Much airplay is given to the merits of back-testing and yet as with the aforementioned guru approach, you can just about find examples, if you look hard enough, of chart examples that mean this “next new indicator thing” is now the answer to replenish your now depleted finds. So, what happens, we have a system change, and yet results still often fall short of expectations.There are 3 common dangers of the retrospective approach to creating (if you haven’t a trading plan already) or altering an existing plan that are worth highlighting.
#1 – Overstating the function of back-testing.
Let us be completely blunt. The purpose of back-testing is NOT, nor should ever be viewed as evidence that a trading plan, based on what ever system you are exploring, will work for you in the reality of live trading.
Back-testing does not generally consider:
a. The impact of economic data releases and revisions,
b. The political and general climate both globally and specifically in the countries that currency pairs relate to,
c. Individual investor behaviour re. timeframes, time of day that they trade, nor their ability (or otherwise) to act or inaction on a change of sentiment,
d. Unplanned events such as escalating conflict (or the threat of such),
e. The relationship and impact of other financial instruments of FX pairs e.g. equity and bond markets, commodities
So, why back-test at all if the evidence could be so flawed?
The answer is simple, back-testing creates evidence, not that a system will definitely work for you as a trader, but ONLY as evidence that a forward (or prospective) test may be worthwhile.
So, the bottom line is the function of back-testing is to justify the time and effort to prospectively test. It is after such a prospective test that system changes can be made/developed.#2 – Failure to gather a critical mass of evidence
There are two issues here.
a. What constitutes enough evidence to move to the next stage of system testing. Quite often traders will make decisions on a limited amount of data e.g. one timeframe and one currency pair, over the last couple of months on which to make system decisions. Now you have read this it may seem obvious and may not need pointing out (but we will anyway) why this is insufficient information on which to base a “cross the board’ entry and exit system.
b. The second issue here is one of selective evidence gathering. A natural human response when excited by an idea is search for evidence to back up that idea. The potential danger with this is that we often tend in this search, to ignore information that refutes our idea.#3 – The reason behind doing this may not be that your system is failing rather it could be a YOU issue.
System skipping is common amongst many traders and is invariably motivated by results that are not as desired.
Here is the danger. As much of what goes into creating trader results (some would suggest up to 80%) is due to behavioural issues (we have waxed lyrical about trading discipline previously) unless you:
a. Have a trading plan that is specific, measurable and comprehensive AND
b. Follow it religiously ‘to the letter”
then you are not really in a position to make a judgement on whether system could serve you well or is likely not to produce desired results. AND to add to this, as such behavioural issues have not been either acknowledged or addressed whatever system (based or retrospective charts or not) is more likely to produce equally disappointing results.So, before you start on the journey of altering a system you should logically make every effort to have, follow and measure the impact of any system before you even consider changing it (or looking into what you may change it to). This MUST be your #1 priority before going down any path of system alterations.
So there you have it. You have a choice to take action of course on what you have read, If so, your missions going forward are:
a. Make sure you have a comprehensive plan that you follow. Then, and only then, should you begin to explore further development including the use of retrospective charts (or back-testing)
b. Recognise the SOLE PURPOSE of back-testing is to create evidence that a forward (or prospective) live test is justified.
c. Make sure you are basing any potential system change on a enough “balanced” data.Ready to start trading?
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
Next Article
Bump in the road for EV makers
It was a monumental year for two of the biggest electric car makers – Tesla and NIO in 2020. The stocks of both companies rose significantly over the last 12 months with NIO gaining over 1000% and Tesla by over 350% - reaching new record highs. With such gains, both companies have attracted significant public interest and a lot of investors ha...
January 1, 2020Read More >Previous Article
Trend retracement or reversal? – Can volume be a useful “clue”?
Trading Volume: General principles Many experienced traders (even those using a simple system will incorporate volume as part of ...
December 26, 2019Read More >We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies. You can view our cookie policy here.Manage consentPrivacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.Cookie Duration Description AWSALBCORS 7 days This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement 1 month Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional 1 month The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". cookielawinfo-checkbox-others 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance 1 month This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". elementor never This cookie is used by the website's WordPress theme. It allows the website owner to implement or change the website's content in real-time. PHPSESSID session This cookie is native to PHP applications. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. viewed_cookie_policy 1 month The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. _GRECAPTCHA 5 months 27 days This cookie is set by Google. In addition to certain standard Google cookies, reCAPTCHA sets a necessary cookie (_GRECAPTCHA) when executed for the purpose of providing its risk analysis. __cfruid session Cloudflare sets this cookie to identify trusted web traffic. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.Cookie Duration Description CONSENT 16 years 3 months 17 days 20 hours These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. They register anonymous statistical data on for example how many times the video is displayed and what settings are used for playback.No sensitive data is collected unless you log in to your google account, in that case your choices are linked with your account, for example if you click “like” on a video. SPSI session This cookie is used for setting a unique ID for the session and it collects user behaviour on the website during the session. This collected information is used for statistical purposes. vuid 2 years Vimeo installs this cookie to collect tracking information by setting a unique ID to embed videos to the website. _ga 2 years The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors. _gat_UA-2467324-17 1 minute This is a pattern type cookie set by Google Analytics, where the pattern element on the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. It appears to be a variation of the _gat cookie which is used to limit the amount of data recorded by Google on high traffic volume websites. _ga_9P2FTXTH5P 2 years This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. _gcl_au 3 months Provided by Google Tag Manager to experiment advertisement efficiency of websites using their services. _gid 1 day Installed by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously. _uetsid 1 day This cookies are used to collect analytical information about how visitors use the website. This information is used to compile report and improve site. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.Cookie Duration Description IDE 1 year 24 days Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. MUID 1 year 24 days Bing sets this cookie to recognize unique web browsers visiting Microsoft sites. This cookie is used for advertising, site analytics, and other operations. NID 6 months NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. test_cookie 15 minutes The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE 5 months 27 days A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. YSC session YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. yt-remote-connected-devices never YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. yt-remote-device-id never YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. yt.innertube::nextId never These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. yt.innertube::requests never These cookies are set via embedded youtube-videos. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.Cookie Duration Description AWSALB 7 days AWSALB is a cookie generated by the Application load balancer in the Amazon Web Services. It works slightly different from AWSELB. DEMO_FORM_PCODE past No description geot_rocket_city session No description available. geot_rocket_country session No description available. geot_rocket_state session No description available. ms-uid 1 year No description available. SPSE session No description available. STYXKEY_geot_country session No description _uc_current_session 1 hour No description available. _uc_initial_landing_page 1 month No description available. _uc_last_referrer 1 month No description available. _uc_referrer 1 month No description available. _uc_visits 1 month No description available. _uetvid 1 year 24 days No description available. Please share your location to continue.
Check our help guide for more info.