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Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities

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Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities

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2024 and 2025 what happend and what will

2024 – Where did that go? As we sit here and review the last weeks of 2024, it has dawned on us that 2024 was the year of wanting everything and getting nothing. Now that might sound like a ridiculous statement considering equities across the MSCI world are averaging double digit returns for 2024. In fact in the US they are on track for two...

December 20, 2024
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Gold in 2025: Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges Ahead

As we examine what may happen in the new year, it is clear that gold continues to be of interest for investors seeking stability, diversification, and opportunities amidst what is likely to be an interesting and changing economic landscape throughout 2025.  With a change in the US presidency, significant central bank action likely, and on-going...

December 13, 2024
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One for the Gold Bugs – Are we seeing a structural change from Au’s renaissance?

There's been plenty made this year about gold's incredible rise to new record levels. A point that gold bugs love to point out. As we sit here gold is trading at around US$2700oz having reached an all-time high that was just shy of US$2900oz.  Thus the question has to be asked: where is the limit? And where too from here for the inert metal?...

November 22, 2024
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Uranium’s Turning Point?

Yellowcake - a commodity that is loved and loathed all in the same breath. The questions we have been asking are - which is right and what’s the outlook? Because as traders and investors that dilemma is key, there is a gap here and that leads to volatility and incorrect pricing in the short and long term some may want to jump on. Recent develo...

November 20, 2024
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Will commodity prices continue to slide?

The last two months, with accelerated selling over the last fortnight, have seen considerable drops in major commodity prices. Oil is at its lowest point since early September, copper likewise and gold futures have dropped almost 8% since the beginning of the month after making record highs. Consequently, on the ASX we have seen the materials...

November 18, 2024
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Drill, Drill, Drill Baby – Oil in the next world order

There has been plenty of conjecture about where oil is going to go in 2025 and we would suggest that the recent climb in Brent crude oil prices above $80 per barrel reflects an intensifying mix of geopolitical uncertainty.  The main 3 uncertainties driving oil have been the impact of the U.S. presidential election, the escalation of the Middle ...

November 15, 2024
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No more ‘White Knight’? What China’s stimulus plans mean for iron ore

China’s recent shift in economic policy and its potential for fiscal stimulus reflect an evolving approach to support economic stability. Following previous monetary easing measures, including a reduction in the Reserve Ratio Requirement and interest rate cuts in late September, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee has ...

November 13, 2024
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The Tricky trade of Oil

Never has the oil been trickier than it is right now. The influences on the price are complex, varied and time dependent. It’s even trickier  when you look at it from the trade of commodities versus equities.  Here are the key things that are catching our attention with oil trading in spot, forwards and equities.   Spot vs. Antici...

June 12, 2024
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Moving forward – the volt revolution of transport 

The transportation of the world is becoming one of the most interesting trading places in markets as we clearly have a structural long-term change coming as the world moves from the black stuff (oil) to electricity.  But the trader question is – what’s happening in these markets now? The black stuff - Oil Oil prices have softened due ...

May 23, 2024
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Economic versus the Federal Reserve Policy Implications

Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near f...

May 21, 2024
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Future metals: are we seeing the 2000s again?

Plenty has been made of the drive towards nickel and lithium as “future metals” as the world's “electrification” takes hold. This “electrification” has been nicknamed the “volt revolution” and when you get these kinds of technological leaps - what's appearing to be the “winner” now doesn't necessarily mean it will be the overall...

May 7, 2024
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Middle East conflict & US interest rates send Gold back towards all-time highs.

Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominan...

January 16, 2024
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XAUUSD Analysis – Further Downside in Gold possible as Risk Premium unwinds

Golds safe haven status was reaffirmed as markets opened on the 9th of October to the news of conflict in the Middle East, this saw XAUUSD go on an impressive run, rallying almost 10%, breaking the psychological 2000 USD an ounce level and hitting 6-month highs. This week we have seen some of that risk premium unwind as reduced haven flows and p...

November 9, 2023
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Is the Gold Run Over?

The recent surge in gold prices, following recent events in the Middle East and the declining US Dollar (DXY), raises the question: Is this the end of the bull run for Gold (XAU/USD)? Gold started rising earlier this month after rejecting the price level of 1815.00. Since then, it has steadily climbed back to its previous peak of 1984.00, a resi...

October 24, 2023
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Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, Gold, Oil

Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watch...

October 16, 2023
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