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Geopolitical Events

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Main Macro Themes In 2019

After a stellar year in 2017, investors were taken aback by the massive swings in the markets in 2018. The turmoil in the financial markets has created an environment of panic and fears about a global recession. Even though the risk of a recession is not on the horizon yet, we do expect 2019 to remain volatile. Prudent investors will likely fa...

January 8, 2019
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Canada – Taking A Look At The Loonie Economy

Canada News Flying Under The Radar Canada has been a predominant feature in financial news in the recent few months, with many discussions centered around the NAFTA and ‘new NAFTA’ agreement, the USMCA trade deal. But despite being such a significant story, it has arguably been overshadowed by the big moves in equity markets, Brexit negotiatio...

December 2, 2018
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Brexit and Italy

As we head into the Thanksgiving holidays, the continuing factors dominating headlines remain Brexit and Italy. This Wednesday was an important day for Brexit and Italy, but the events unfolded without any major catalysts or breakthrough. Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker meeting in Brussels: It appears that some progress has been made. Th...

November 22, 2018
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G20 Summit 10th Anniversary

In the wake of the global financial crisis, the G20 summit has become a popular forum of global governance and cooperation. In the heat of the disaster, G20 members came together to sustain global financial stability. The G20 has been a useful pool of information and decision making that have steered the global financial markets since 2008. G7 ...

November 16, 2018
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Latest US Jobs Report

The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for September. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today versus the forecast of 185,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, in health care, an...

October 5, 2018
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USMCA – NAFTA 2.0

The fourth quarter kicked off with some good news on trade with a last-minute agreement between US-Mexico- Canada just before the deadline. "America first" is the slogan by Trump and he managed to do just that at least when renaming NAFTA to USMCA. The new agreement came with rules for cars and trucks, labour, IP protections and dairy products....

October 3, 2018
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Italy’s “First Budget” By the Populist Government

The newly-elected populist government in Italy will deliver its very first budget which will be pivotal to the Eurozone area. Italy has the second largest public government debt pile in Europe after the Greeks. The debt to equity ratio in Italy currently stands at 131.81% of its GDP, and market participants are questioning whether Italy will be a...

August 23, 2018
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Greece’s Bailout Comes to an End – A Goodbye to the Troika

After eight long years of crisis whereby Greece endured stringent budget austerity programs, the country’s bailout will finally come to an end. Greece will therefore have to finance itself by borrowing on international bond markets. Before the bailout Greece was battling massive debt, loss of investment and huge unemployment. Nearly ‎€300b...

August 21, 2018
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NAFTA Update – Have US Negotiations Progressed?

It’s been one year since the trade renegotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, the United States and Mexico began. Since then we have seen tough rhetoric on how the agreement should look like moving forward from each country, especially the United States. But are we finally getting closer to an agreement? Ab...

August 16, 2018
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China Taking Stock Of US Trade Deficit Figures

The US official trade deficit number with China is $375.2bn in 2017. But According to China Customs General Administration, this number should be $275.8bn. Notice there is a vast gap between the versions from two sides. So, which version is closer to the facts? Firstly, let’s start this debate by looking at the US perspective. Previously in the...

August 9, 2018
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Time Ticking for Brexit

Time Ticking for Brexit By Klavs Valters In just over a year – on 29th March 2019 to be exact – Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union. It has been nearly a year since Theresa May triggered Article 50 and began the two-year process to negotiate an exit deal. As we know, the negotiations so far can’t be classed as successful. Even ...

March 18, 2018
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US Trade vs the World

US Trade vs the World   Since Donald Trump became the President of the United States in 2016, we have heard him say a lot about the "unbelievably bad" trade agreements the world’s largest economy has with some countries around the world. We have already seen Trump attempt to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which...

January 30, 2018
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City of London Feeling the Brexit Effect

City of London Feeling the Brexit Effect Not a day goes by without Brexit being mentioned and we can expect more of this to continue for some time, even after Britain leaves the European Union next year. With the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its economic growth forecast for Britain for the coming years, are we also starting to see the...

January 15, 2018
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UK Trade vs The World

UK Trade vs The World With the UK leaving the European Union next year, its trading arrangements with the bloc will change. How they will change will be determined over the coming months when both parties start the second phase of the negotiations. This will shine a light on what the agreement will look like and how it will impact the world’s fi...

January 10, 2018
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UK Making Post-Brexit Plans

UK Making Post-Brexit Plans   2018 is shaping up to be a defining year for the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. After making sufficient progress in the first phase of negotiations, talks will now begin on the trade arrangements after the UK leaves the EU. Even though the UK cannot agree on any trade arrangements...

January 4, 2018
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