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Market Analysis – Gold tests key level, AUD dips ahead of CPI, Oil bounces

Global markets chopped about in Tuesday’s session with no key data released with traders seemingly waiting on the sidelines for US CPI and a slew of bank earnings later in the week. Gold – XAUUSD XAUUSD rallied in Tuesdays APAC session testing the 2040 USD an ounce resistance level before a sharp drop as Europe opened saw drop to a low of...

January 10, 2024
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AUD CPI Data Looms

Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67. On Wednesday this week, the Aust...

January 9, 2024
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Gold slides as DXY recovers

The recovery in strength on the DXY has led to Gold reversing strongly from the all-time high of 2088 which was reached at the end of 2023. Last week, the US employment data was released stronger than expected with the Non-Farm employment change at 216K (Forecast: 168K), however, wage inflation remained unchanged at 0.4%. This set of data is likel...

January 9, 2024
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Market Analysis – Oil tumbles on Saudi price cut – USD, JPY, CHF

USD ultimately ended lower on Monday with the US Dollar Index (DXY) first testing the resistance at 102.57 to the upside before reversing course to test the support at 102 to the downside. A risk on equity markets and some dovish developments. Data saw the NY Fed Survey show lower than expected inflation expectations. There was also a dovish call f...

January 9, 2024
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The Week Ahead – XAUUSD, AUDUSD, DXY

Global markets enter the second week of the new year in cooldown mode with risk assets taking a hit after the red-hot finish to 2023. The NASDAQ having its worst start to a year since 1999, dropping almost 4% on the week, risk sensitive currencies AUD and NZD following not far behind. FX traders have a slew of CPI reports in the coming week to l...

January 8, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD flat ahead of NFP, EUR rallies on PMI beats, JPY lags

Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, st...

January 5, 2024
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Market Analysis – Dollar rips, AAPL dips, Oil take a wild ride

The new trading year kicked off with a dip in equities with Big Tech leading losses in Tuesday’s session, AAPL being the big loser after a downgrade from Barclays citing concern in iPhone demand. Yields and the USD ripped higher, the US Dollar Index having its biggest daily gain since March 2023. Crude oil capped off an interesting session with a...

January 3, 2024
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FX Analysis – Fed pivot bets to be tested this week

FX markets enter the new year with a continuing backdrop of a weaker USD as traders bet on a Fed pivot in the first half of the year. That narrative could be tested later in the week with some key US manufacturing and employment data, including the monthly Non-farm payrolls. Key levels look to be tested this week in different FX pairs with AUDUS...

January 2, 2024
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Market Analysis – Gold, USDCHF, Crude Oil

Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged...

December 28, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD, XAUUSD – Testing Key Levels

The US Dollar has continued its year end decline after the holiday break in thin volume. Traders still holding onto the view of a dovish Fed come 2024 seeing yields also drop creating a headwind for the Greenback. AUDUSD The Aussie pushed has pushed higher this week, taking advantage of a weak USD and a risk on environment. AUDUSD breaking th...

December 27, 2023
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Market Analysis – USD slides, AUD hits key level, Gold rallies

Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. T...

December 22, 2023
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FX Analysis – DXY, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

  USD was offered in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) printing a low of 102.060 ahead of the last major economic release for the year in Fridays  Core PCE reading.  Hawkish leaning comments from the Feds Bostic that he only sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than the Fed median of three and well under the market pricing ...

December 20, 2023
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FX Analysis – USDCAD, USDJPY, AUDUSD

FX traders have some tier one data releases to look forward to today, including the last major central bank meeting in the form of the Bank of Japan. RBA monetary policy minutes and Canadian CPI also having market moving potential.  AUDUSD The Aussie was modestly in the green in Monday’s session after initial strength that saw it outperfor...

December 19, 2023
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The Week Ahead – US and UK inflation, RBA minutes, BoJ meeting

Equity markets enter the second last week of 2023 on a roll, with US equities rallying for seven straight weeks and seeing all time highs in the Dow. The risk on rally was turbo charged last week after a dovish pivot from the US Fed in the December meeting saw yields and the Dollar tank and everything else bid heavily with rallies in Gold, Oil, ...

December 18, 2023
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FX Analysis – Dollar dumps, Gold surges on Fed pivot

Wednesdays FOMC meeting was always going to be about whether we’d see a hawkish pushback against market expectations of a dovish Fed in 2024, or a validation of those expectations, from the market reaction to the meeting, traders decided the latter is the conclusion. Rates were kept on hold at 5.35%-5.5% as expected but the updated dot plot an...

December 14, 2023
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