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Articles

Trade from an informed place. We cover news, political events and market analysis plus product updates.

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Articles

Trade from an informed place. We cover news, political events and market analysis plus product updates.

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Nasdaq cements its best start to a year since 1975

The Nasdaq Composite Index has kicked off 2023 with a historic performance, achieving its most impressive start since 1975. Despite concerns about a potential recession, the index has displayed remarkable resilience, surging over 37% year-to-date as of the end of July. The upward trend has been consistent, with green months recorded in 6 out of ...

August 2, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD Catches a Bid, AUD outperforms ahead of RBA, JPY struggles

USD rallied modestly into month end with DXY pushing to the top of its recent range to again test the big 102 resistance level. The data highlight out of the US was the Chicago PMI figure which rose from the prior 41.5 to 42.8, but missing expectations of 43.3.  in FedSpeak,  Governor Goolsbee added little new from the FOMC statement last week st...

August 1, 2023
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FX analysis – USD up on rising yields, EUR down on dovish ECB, JPY surges ahead of BoJ

US equity markets snapped a record-breaking run of up sessions in Thursdays trading, with the Dow Jones looking set to close in the green for a 14th straight session (for the first time since the Dow’s inception), before seeing a sell-off on rising yields after a report that the BoJ is looking to tweak their YCC at their meeting today. FX Mark...

July 28, 2023
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FOMC Preview – One and Done, or More to Come? The Charts to Watch

The long-awaited July FOMC meeting is finally upon us where rates markets are pricing in a sure thing for a 25bp hike (even a small chance of a 50bp), the question that traders will be looking for to be answered is “is this it?”. With a growing number of economists calling this the top in rates, butting up against the FOMC June statement and un...

July 26, 2023
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Gold eases heading into FOMC

After a fortnight of trending north, Gold has fallen over the past 5 days. It is currently trading at around $1960, showing a slight decline of approximately 1.35% from its recent high of $1987.53. Price is currently trying to break out of the downward channel that it has been in since late last week, so something to keep an eye on going into th...

July 26, 2023
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FX Analysis – Treasury Yield surge Pushes USD Higher, AUD Outperforms on Hot Jobs Report

The US Dollar was firmer Thursday, continuing its bounce from extreme oversold levels, the DXY peaking at 100.97, just short of the major resistance at the big 101 figure. A much lower than expected initial jobless claims figure saw a jump in US treasury yields, propelling the USD higher with the DXY having it biggest up day since May. AUD w...

July 21, 2023
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Eyes on EURUSD going into European inflation data

After surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EURUSD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released today. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Ye...

July 19, 2023
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US Dollar analysis ahead of pivotal CPI reading

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has closed its fourth consecutive day in the red, reaching levels last seen in early May 2023. Despite the recent decline, the DXY is coming into support around the 100 level, which has proven to be a resilient bounce point multiple times. However, each bounce appears to be getting smaller, which might indicate growing ...

July 12, 2023
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FX Market analysis – USD lower ahead of key CPI figure, GBP breaks out on strong jobs data

USD was marginally lower in Tuesdays session ,  trading in a tight range amid thin newsflow and market participants awaiting the key June CPI reading released later today. After breaking the psychological 102 level in Mondays session, DXY tested a re-entry into the range but found the previous support at 102 acting as stiff resistance, seeing DXY ...

July 12, 2023
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Potential Reversal on the NZDUSD?

The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would likely keep interest rates at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on 12th July. This is supported by the RBNZ’s monetary statement indicating that “monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full ef...

July 11, 2023
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FX markets analysis – DXY, JPY, AUD, MXN, CNH, EUR

USD rose on Wednesday with participants returning from the long weekend pushing the Dollar Index above the key 103.00 level. FOMC minutes from the June meeting were released, with nothing new in Dot Plot projections but they did confirm that some policymakers were pushing for a 25bp hike rather than the hold we got, which lent support to the USD. A...

July 6, 2023
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Could the RBA Surprise with another rate hike?

In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the Australian cash rate to 4.10%. This was decided on the basis that further increases were required to provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. This decision led to the AUDU...

July 3, 2023
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USDJPY enters the intervention “danger zone”

USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had t...

June 30, 2023
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Aussie inflation cools with big miss in CPI print – AUDUSD dumps

Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI....

June 28, 2023
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GBPJPY Breaks Through to 2015 Levels

The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially exce...

June 28, 2023
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